This weekend’s Australian Grand Prix kicks off an era of new regulations that have transformed how the cars operate with new challenges for drivers and teams. It begins a period of uncertainty and anticipation but despite that, our F1 writers have predicted who they think will flourish and who will falter this season.
Who will win the world title?
George Russell. It’s all guesswork until teams fully show their hands this weekend, but Mercedes looked impressive in testing – banking the most laps of anyone – and were almost certainly holding back a bit pace-wise. Their engine appears to be best in class, and while McLaren have the same power unit, it is usually an advantage, particularly in the first year of new regs, to have the entire operation – engine, electronic systems, chassis etc – all under the same roof. Russell should also be giving away fewer points to his team-mate than Lando Norris.
Max Verstappen. Red Bull appeared to have surprised most of the grid with their new power unit and they showed impressive straight-line speed in the Bahrain tests. I doubt whether Verstappen will have the fastest car in Melbourne but the season is a long one. As he has shown in the past two seasons, he does not need the quickest car to win races.
Max Verstappen. He knows how to win even without the best equipment and the team are determined to show they know how to put together a competitive package including the power unit.
Lewis Hamilton. I said the same last year and look how that turned out. However, hear me out. The new regulations should suit Hamilton’s driving style and if Ferrari can deliver a car worthy of challenging it would be silly to rule out an eight-time, sorry seven-time, world champion.
Who will be the top Brit?
TC George Russell. If I’ve picked him for the championship, I can hardly switch horses now. Although “best Brit” may be different to “top Brit”. If Arvid Lindblad beats Liam Lawson in his rookie season, or Oliver Bearman helps to establish Haas as the best of the rest behind the big four, that would be mightily impressive. Also, all eyes on Lewis Hamilton. If Ferrari give him the car, can the seven-time champion challenge team-mate Charles Leclerc?
LS George Russell. It is hard to look beyond him given that Mercedes are expected to be the team to beat at this stage and that he was superb last season too. This could be the first time Russell is in championship contention after years in a car only capable of occasional victories. I believe he has what it takes under pressure.
GA George Russell. To be honest, he has suffered through a few dismal years when Mercedes dropped the ball. This change in regulations should now give them a clean sheet to show again that they know how to build a competitive car.
FC Lewis Hamilton. See above. George Russell will run him close as Mercedes do look fast, but every time the championship favourite has come under pressure on track he has shown a sort of petulance, which can derail a world title challenge.
Who will be the biggest disappointment?
TC Aston Martin. Just a complete horror show of a pre-season. Overweight, underpowered, problems piling up everywhere. After Adrian Newey confirmed rumours they may retire both cars after a couple of laps this weekend, as the Honda power unit is not reliable enough to complete a race distance, are probably wide of the mark. Apart from anything else, Honda need the laps to get on top of its problems. But this was not what anyone expected when ambitious Aston signed Newey on massive money last year.
LS Ferrari. There is optimism around the team for 2026, but that is all the more reason to believe that they will be a let-down, as they were last year… and many, many times before that. The long wait for a championship of any kind could reach 18 years.
GA Fernando Alonso. At this point it looks like Alonso, and that’s because of this situation created by Aston Martin and Honda. He has been waiting for quite a few seasons for his big opportunity to add to his win tally and perhaps even another championship. However, it looks like that ship has sailed.
FC McLaren. It will not be catastrophically disappointing, as their driver line-up will carry them to a respectable finish. However, with a lot of time, energy and money going into ensuring last year’s car was as good as it was, I feel the defending champions will be playing catch-up for the first half of the year.
What impact will the rule changes have?
TC Significant. The style of driving is likely to be completely different and will attract a lot of the “Formula E on steroids” criticism voiced by Max Verstappen. We may have some weird and wacky stuff, at least initially, with some yo-yoing as drivers adapt to the energy harvesting demands. But I suspect if the championship is competitive, and the order is mixed up a bit, a lot will be forgiven.
LS Large... but how large? At best, the teams could master the extensive and complicated energy management requirements early in the season. That would mean more of a level playing field with less potential for ridiculous situations unfolding. At worst, we could see those farcical scenes playing out across the grid every weekend.
GA Initially, they will separate the grid however I’m pretty sure by mid-season we will see the gap close up again as teams find the common denominator that makes these new rules tick. It will take a few years, though, before we see it as competitive as it was in 2025.
FC Less dominance. The days are gone when one team, or in some cases one driver, will win five to six races on the spin. The new rules should cause each car to react differently to every track, leading some to dominate more than others at certain races. Last year there were only four race winners, but I think that number could reach seven.
The most shocking thing will be...
TC Cadillac beating Aston Martin in their debut season, despite never having built an F1 car before, would be pretty shocking. Although I suspect Aston will come back and have too much for them. Christian Horner popping up at a new team mid-season?
LS Adrian Newey leaving Aston Martin. Describing something as shocking means that by nature it has to be unexpected or explosive. Given the way things are going with the Aston Martin and Honda partnership (plus how Lawrence Stroll operates) would it be too much to say Newey leaving the team? That is perhaps too extreme, but I can see him being moved on or standing down as team principal.
GA The unknown. For the viewer and even the enthusiast the races will be even more confusing, as there are far too many variables available to both the teams and the driver. Straightforward races where the best driver and/or team wins are in the distant past.
FC Christian Horner returns. There were whispers last year that Horner was looking to return to the paddock with Aston Martin the most likely team. Adrian Newey is a great engineer but is no team principal and with testing revealing they are likely to start this year in the dumps, I would not be shocked to see Lawrence Stroll parachute in Horner to try to sort out the mess.